AgriCharts Market Commentary

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Corn

Corn futures are trading 1 to 1 lower this morning after ending the Monday session with losses of 2 to 3 cents. The USDA Export Inspections report showed exports for the week of October 12 well below a year ago at just 12.7 mbu, and lagging the previous week by 44.59%. Export shipments for the marketing YTD are now just half of the total for the same date in 2017 at 153.7 mbu. The Monday afternoon USDA Crop Progress report indicated that just 28% of the US corn crop was harvested as of October 15, a gain of just 6% over last week. The 5-year average for this week sits at 47%. Condition ratings gained 1 point on the Brugler500 to 366.

Soybeans

Soybean futures are currently 5 cents lower after falling 4 to 9 1/4 cents on profit taking on Monday. Preliminary open interest was down 2,507 contracts. December meal was $4.10/ton lower, with nearby bean oil down 10 points. Monday’s Export Inspections report indicated shipment of 65.05 mbu. That was a 18.78% jump over the previous week but 31% smaller than the same week last year. YTD inspections (since Sept 1) now lag last year by 21.84 mbu. Soybean export commitments are 11.4% lower than this time last year. The NOPA September crush was 136.419 mbu, slightly below expectations. That was still 4.75% larger than last September and the largest September crush since 2007. Soy oil stocks were nearly 30 million pounds tighter than expectations at 1.302 billion pounds. The USDA reported the soybean harvest at 49% completed, vs. the average of 60% for this date.

Wheat

Wheat futures are mostly 2 to 3 cents higher in MPLS spring wheat this morning. The other two US markets are fractionally lower. They closed Monday with most contracts 1 to 5 1/2 cents lower. Preliminary open interest was down 2,536 in the Chicago contracts, with most of the Monday liquidation in nearby December. All wheat export inspections totaled just 11.86 mbu during the week of Oct 12. That is 8.19% lower than the previous week and 30.53% behind the same week a year ago. Shipments YTD for the 17/18 MY are 15.34 mbu smaller than the same time in 2016. The USDA Crop Progress report indicated that 60% of the US winter wheat crop was planted as of Sunday, lagging the average pace by 11%. It also showed 37% of the crop emerged. In Iraq’s recent tender for 50,000 MT of wheat, the US presented the lowest offer.

Cattle

Live cattle futures settled Monday trade with most contracts 15 cents to $1.10 lower. Feeder futures were 5 to 65 cents lower. The CME feeder cattle index was 43 cents higher at $155.66 on October 13.Wholesale beef prices were higher in the Monday afternoon report. Choice was up 59 cents at $198.81, while select boxes were 52 cents higher at $190.57. The drop credit was down 1 cent to $10.26/cwt live basis. FI cattle slaughter was light on Monday and estimated at 110,000 head, about 5,000 fewer than the previous week and 4,000 head lower the same week last year. Cash sales @ $111 were reported to end last week, with a few up to $112 in some regions.

Lean Hogs

Lean hog futures were steady to $1.50 higher on Monday. Only December was in triple digit territory. The CME Lean Hog Index for 10/12 was $0.39 higher than the previous day at $59.51. The USDA pork carcass cutout value was 81 cents higher at $75.25. The belly primal was $2.21 lower, while the loin jumped $4.51. The national base hog was up 82 cents at 58.41. Estimated FI hog slaughter was 17,000 head fewer than last week at 446,000 head on Monday, but still 5,000 larger than the same week in 2016.

Cotton

Cotton futures are 9 to 11 points higher thus far on Tuesday after they finished the Monday session with most contracts 55 to 109 points lower. There was a little pressure from a slightly higher US dollar, up 176 points. The USDA showed 82% of the cotton crop with bolls open. They show 31% harvested vs. the average of 26%. National ratings moved around, as gd/ex was 2% lower at 58% gd/ex. The Brugler500 was left UNCH at 355, as very poor ratings also improved to poor and fair. The Adjusted World Price (AWP) was updated to 60.44 cents/lb, down 11 points from the previous week. The Cotlook A index for the 13th of October was 100 points lower at 77.70 cents/lb. The Seam reported online cash sales of 888 bales at an average price of 66.49 cents/lb.


Market Commentary provided by:

Brugler Marketing & Management LLC
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