AgriCharts Market Commentary

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Corn

Corn futures are trading 2 to 4 cents higher at midday, with a slightly positive USDA report this morning. The USDA announced another private export sale of 152,000 MT of corn to Mexico for 17/18 delivery this morning. The USDA updated the US ending stocks estimate to 2.437 bbu, a 50 mbu tightening from November and below most expectations. That came from higher ethanol usage, as production was left unchanged. The world ending stocks were increased 0.22 MMT to 204.08 MMT. Production for Brazil was left unchanged at 95 MMT by the USDA, although CONAB now estimates the crop at 92.2 MMT.

Dec 17 Corn is at $3.40 1/2, up 4 cents,

Mar 18 Corn is at $3.52 1/4, up 3 1/4 cents,

May 18 Corn is at $3.60 1/4, up 3 cents

Jul 18 Corn is at $3.68 1/2, up 2 3/4 cents

Soybeans

Soybean futures are currently 2 to 3 cents higher on Tuesday. December meal is down 50 cents/ton, with nearby bean oil 23 points lower. A private export sale of 168,000 MT to Unknown Destinations was announced for 17/18 delivery by the USDA this morning. This morning’s USDA Supply and Demand report showed US soybean ending stocks 20 mbu larger than November. Most of that increase was from a reduction in the US export projection by 25 mbu. On the World side, both Argentina and Brazil production was left alone at 108 MMT, while CONAB now sees the Brazilian crop at 109.2 MMT. The USDA added 0.42 MMT to the world ending stocks number to 98.32 MMT due to larger beginning stocks and a reduction in crush.

Jan 18 Soybeans are at $9.85 1/4, up 2 3/4 cents,

Mar 18 Soybeans are at $9.96 3/4, up 2 3/4 cents,

May 18 Soybeans are at $10.07 3/4, up 2 1/2 cents,

Jul 18 Soybeans are at $10.17 1/4, up 2 3/4 cents,

Dec 17 Soybean Meal is at $325.50, down $0.50

Dec 17 Soybean Oil is at $33.17, down $0.23

Wheat

Wheat futures are mostly 1 to 4 cents higher at midday, with the soon to expire Dec contracts showing thin trade. The USDA reported 120,000 MT of HRW wheat was sold to Algeria for 17/18 delivery through their daily export sale reporting system. The December WASDE report showed an increase of 25 mbu to the US ending stocks estimate for wheat to 960 mbu, larger than most analysts’ expectations. That was mainly from a 25 mbu reduction to the export total. The world ending stocks number went against expectations, and was raised 0.89 MMT to 268.42 MMT. Canadian production was increased, as were Russian exports. Egypt’s GASC purchased 295,000 MT of Russian and Romanian wheat on Tuesday, with just 1 cargo from Romania and the rest Russian. Japan’s MOA is seeking 147,696 MT in Australia, Canada, and US wheat, with 95,366 MT from the US. The tender will close Thursday.

Mar 18 CBOT Wheat is at $4.16, up 2 1/2 cents,

Mar 18 KCBT Wheat is at $4.16 1/4, up 3 1/2 cents,

Mar 18 MGEX Wheat is at $6.11, up 2 1/4 cents

Cattle

Live cattle futures are showing $1.625 to $2.40 gains on Tuesday. Feeder cattle futures are mostly $2.425 to $2.625 higher in the nearby contracts. The CME feeder cattle index on December 8 was down 8 cents to $154.32. Wholesale boxed beef values were higher on Tuesday morning. Choice was up 29 cents at $205.82, with select 32 cents higher at $185.98. Estimated week to date FI cattle slaughter was 120,000 head, 1,000 head fewer than the previous week but 6,000 head larger than the same Monday last year. The FCE has 704 head of cattle listed for Wednesday morning’s online auction. The USDA trimmed estimated fourth quarter beef production by 95 million pounds to 6.87 million billion pounds. The 4Q figure is still the largest in at least 14 years. Production for 2018 was cut 30 million pounds to 27.59 billion pounds.

Dec 17 Cattle are at $116.800, up $1.625,

Feb 18 Cattle are at $120.125, up $2.400,

Apr 18 Cattle are at $121.625, up $2.000,

Jan 18 Feeder Cattle are at $147.875, up $2.425

Mar 18 Feeder Cattle are at $145.950, up $2.625

Apr 18 Feeder Cattle are at $145.900, up $2.450

Lean Hogs

Lean hog futures are mixed on Tuesday with nearby Dec 30 cents higher and back months lower. The CME Lean Hog Index for 12/8 was down 31 cents to $65.17. The USDA pork carcass cutout value was down 12 cents at $81.57 in the Tuesday morning report. The belly was reported at $12.81 lower, with the other cuts higher. The national base hog price was 21 cents lower at $58.66 this morning. The WCB was down 65 cents, with the IA/MN region 62 cents lower. The USDA daily FI hog slaughter was 464,000 head. That was down 1,000 head from the previous week and 22,000 head more than the same Monday last year. The USDA updated the pork production table this morning, trimming 180 million pounds off the fourth quarter production to 6.775 billion pounds. They also lowered 2018 production 10 million pounds to 26.915 billion pounds.

Dec 17 Hogs are at $63.900, up $0.300,

Feb 18 Hogs are at $66.675, down $0.350

Apr 18 Hogs are at $71.400, down $0.425

Cotton

Cotton futures are currently 46 to 61 points higher at midday, with support coming from the USDA supply and demand tables. The USDA Cotton Ginnings report shows that as of December 1, 11.335 million RB had been ginned in the US. That was nearly 10% larger than this time last year and an increase of 3.408 million RB over the mid-November report. The USDA raised the US production number slightly to 21.44 million bales, on a 2 lb increase in yield to 902 lbs/ac. The US ending stocks number was lowered 0.3 million bales, as exports were raised by that amount. The world ending stocks number was trimmed 2.88 million bales to 88 million bales. Online cash sales dropped to 10,842 bales reported on the Seam, with prices were down 20 points to 68.44 cents/lb. The Cotlook A index was down 50 points from the previous day on December 11 to 84.20 cents/lb.

Mar 18 Cotton is at 73.61, up 61 points,

May 18 Cotton is at 74.1, up 52 points

Jul 18 Cotton is at 74.35, up 46 points


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