AgriCharts Market Commentary

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Corn

Corn futures are fractionally higher in the front months at midday. Preliminary open interest data showed some net new selling yesterday, up 5653 contracts. Lack of fresh news has kept corn in a tight 23 1/4 cent range since mid March. The weekly EIA report this morning had daily ethanol production at 1.01 million barrels per day last week. It showed ethanol production dropping 17,000 bpd over the week of May 19. Ethanol stocks were reported to diminish by 730,000 barrels. Every region except the West Coast saw a reduction, with the Midwest losing 474,000 barrels and the Gulf drawn down 340,000 barrels. This is usually indicative of strong export activity.

Jul 17 Corn is at $3.69 3/4, up 1/4 cent,

Sep 17 Corn is at $3.77 1/4, up 1/4 cent,

Dec 17 Corn is at $3.88, up 1/4 cent

Mar 18 Corn is at $3.97 3/4, up 1/4 cent

Soybeans

Soybean futures are currently 1/4 to 1/2 cents lower at the moment. Preliminary open interest rose only 1,233 contracts, suggesting more rotation of ownership than new selling interest. July 17 meal is steady, with soy oil down 6 points in the front month. Forecasts of rain over the next five days in the WCB could result in planting delays for producers in an already soaked region. The national soybean cash price as reported by DTN was $8.8061 on Tuesday night, $1.08 lower than a year ago. That leaves a national basis of -67 3/4 cents, just 2 1/4 cents stronger than last year. Basis has not firmed as much as would usually be seen due to larger carryover stocks and the wall of oncoming supplies from South America.

Jul 17 Soybeans are at $9.48, down 1/4 cent,

Aug 17 Soybeans are at $9.49 3/4, down 1/2 cent,

Sep 17 Soybeans are at $9.47 1/2, down 1/2 cent,

Nov 17 Soybeans are at $9.47 1/4, down 1 1/4 cents,

Jul 17 Soybean Meal is at $306.30, unch

Jul 17 Soybean Oil is at $32.28, down $0.06

Wheat

Wheat futures are trading 2 to 2 1/2 cents in the green in nearby July at midday. Most contracts are fractionally mixed in the back months. Preliminary OI data for Chicago showed some net new selling with the OI up 1,984 contracts. Winter wheat conditions may be 23 points lower than last year by using the Brugler 500 index, but are still 23 points higher than the 5 year average and 20 points above the 10 year average. Correlations between mid-May crop ratings and final US average yield are still weak. SRW 16/17 exports from the EU were at 21.82 MMT through May 23, down 20.88% from that time frame last year. You will recall that they had a much smaller crop last year and have drawn down stockpiles significantly.

Jul 17 CBOT Wheat is at $4.31 1/2, up 2 cents,

Jul 17 KCBT Wheat is at $4.32 3/4, up 2 1/4 cents,

Jul 17 MGEX Wheat is at $5.56 3/4, up 2 1/2 cents

Cattle

Live cattle futures are down $1.50 to $2.00 at midday. Feeder cattle futures are mostly $3.20 to $3.625 lower with May down 27.5 cents, as it expires tomorrow and needs to stick close to the Index. The CME feeder cattle index was up 39 cents on May 22, at $143.27. Wholesale beef prices were mixed in the Wednesday morning report, with choice boxes up 18 cents averaging $245.92, and select down 82 cents, averaging $220.35. Week to date estimated FI slaughter is 231,000 head, up 1,000 head from the previous week and 10,000 head larger than the same week last year. The FCE auction showed cash prices decreasing $2.62 wk/wk to a weighted average price of $132.54 for 1-9 day delivery. Of the 2,684 head offered in this week’s auction, 1,333 were sold. The COF report will be released at 11:00 a.m. on Friday with April placements expected at 6.8% larger than last April and marketings 1.8% above the previous April. Cattle on feed for May 1 is projected to increase 0.8% over May 2016.

Jun 17 Cattle are at $121.575, down $1.500,

Aug 17 Cattle are at $119.425, down $1.900,

Oct 17 Cattle are at $116.050, down $2.000,

May 17 Feeder Cattle are at $143.975, down $0.275

Aug 17 Feeder Cattle are at $147.900, down $3.600

Sep 17 Feeder Cattle are at $148.050, down $3.625

Lean Hogs

Lean hog futures are currently mixed at midday, with front months 10 to 35 cents higher and most back months lower. The CME Lean Hog Index for 5/22 was up another 5 cents to $75.94.The USDA pork carcass cutout value was 33 cents higher in the morning report, with an average of $90.63. The loin was $4.22 higher, as the butt, picnic, rib, and ham were all lower The national base hog carcass price was 44 cents lower at $70.77. The WCB was 13 cents higher with IA/MN up 2 cents. WTD estimated FI hog slaughter through Tuesday was 881,000 head, 5,000 larger wk/wk, and is 18,000 head above the same time a year ago.

Jun 17 Hogs are at $80.500, up $0.350,

Jul 17 Hogs are at $80.125, up $0.100

Aug 17 Hogs are at $79.875, down $0.025

Cotton

Cotton futures are slightly higher at the moment, after dropping 810 points since May 15. The US dollar index is currently 63 points higher and not having much affect on cotton futures. The AWP (average world price) through Thursday is 72.44 cents/lb, jumping 3.75 cents/lb from the previous week. On Wednesday, China sold 16,100 MT of cotton form state reserves, which was 53.19% of the near 30,000 MT offered. The Cotlook A index for May 23 was 95 points lower at 88.05 cents/lb. The Seam had no sales to report for cash prices.

Jul 17 Cotton is at 77.39, up 17 points,

Dec 17 Cotton is at 72.43, up 6 points

Mar 18 Cotton is at 72.210, up 8 points


Market Commentary provided by:

Brugler Marketing & Management LLC
1908 N. 203rd St.Omaha, NE 68022
Phone: 402-697-3623
Fax: 402-289-2353
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