Ag Market Commentary

Corn futures are showing 1 to 2 1/4 cent losses at midday, despite some bullish news from the USDA. This morning’s onslaught of USDA reports saw 2018/19 US yield slashed by 2.5 bpa to 176.4 bpa, which dropped production to 14.420 bbu. After several balance sheet revisions, 18/19 ending stocks were trimmed by 46 mbu to 1.735 bbu. The quarterly Grain Stocks report showed Dec 1 corn stocks at 11.952 bbu, which is down 4.89% from last year and 140 mbu below the average trade estimate. On the bear side, world ending stocks are projected at 309.78 MMT, up 1 MMT from the Dec number. USDA left the Brazil production number at 94.5 MMT, with Argentina at 46 MMT, up 3.5 MMT. Ukrainian firm ProAgro estimates that the country’s 2019 corn crop will be at 31.2 MMT, down 4.4 MMT from last year.

Mar 19 Corn is at $3.74 1/4, down 2 1/4 cents,

May 19 Corn is at $3.82, down 2 1/4 cents,

Jul 19 Corn is at $3.90, down 2 1/4 cents

Sep 19 Corn is at $3.93 1/2, down 1 3/4 cents

--provided by Brugler Marketing & Management



Soybean futures are down 1 to 1 3/4 cents in most contracts on Friday. Meal futures are up 30 cents/ton in the nearby contracts, with soy oil down 20 points The NASS Crop Production report showed US soybean yield at 51.6 bpa, down 0.5 bpa from the November update and below most estimates. That dropped production to 4.544 bbu. The new ending stocks projection from USDA is now at 910 mbu, 45 mbu below the previous number. In the quarterly Grain Stocks report, USDA showed Dec 1 soybean stocks at 3.736 bbu, a jump of 575 mbu from the year prior. In the world side of things, USDA saw tighter world carryout by ~8.61 MMT to 106.72 MMT. That was assisted by a 5 MMT cut to Brazil production as expected, now at 117 MMT. Argentina’s output number was down 0.5 to 55 MMT. Chinese soybean consumption was cut 3.5 MMT from the December figure, with imports lowered another 2 MMT.

Mar 19 Soybeans are at $9.11 3/4, down 1 1/2 cents,

May 19 Soybeans are at $9.25 3/4, down 1 1/2 cents,

Jul 19 Soybeans are at $9.39 1/4, down 1 3/4 cents,

Aug 19 Soybeans are at $9.44 1/2, down 1 3/4 cents,

Mar 19 Soybean Meal is at $305.80, up $0.30

Mar 19 Soybean Oil is at $30.61, down $0.20

--provided by Brugler Marketing & Management



Wheat futures are steady to 3 cents lower in most contracts at midday, with nearby CBT and MPLS up 1 3/4 cents. The monthly update to USDA’s WASDE report saw US wheat carryout up 36 mbu to 1.01 bbu. That mainly came from revisions to the feed and residual number, with the quarterly stocks updated showing larger wheat stock piles. The Grain Stocks report indicated that 1.999 bbu of wheat was in on and off farm storage on Dec 1. That was up 126 mbu from the same time last year. World ending stocks were seen down 0.57 MMT to 267.53 MMT. The Winter Wheat seedings report showed that 31.29 million acres of all wheat was planted this fall, well below estimates and down 1.31 mac from last year. That included 22.2 mac of HRW, 5.66 mac SRW and 3.44 mac of white winter wheat. Egypt’s GASC purchased a total of 300,000 MT of wheat in their tender on Friday. Of the total, 120,000 MT was US and French origin, with 60,000 MT Ukrainian.

Mar 19 CBOT Wheat is at $5.15, up 1 3/4 cents,

Mar 19 KCBT Wheat is at $4.92 3/4, down 3 1/2 cents,

Mar 19 MGEX Wheat is at $5.66 1/4, up 1 3/4 cents

--provided by Brugler Marketing & Management



Live cattle futures are up 67.5 to 90 cents in most contracts at midday. Feeder cattle futures are up 82.5 to 95 cents in the front months. The CME feeder cattle index was up 28 cents on February 6 at $141.81. Wholesale boxed beef prices were lower on Friday morning. Choice boxes were down $1 at $215.71 with Select 49 cents lower at $211.04. Week to date USDA estimated FI cattle slaughter is 470,000 head through Thursday. That is up 7,000 head from last week and the same week last year. Cash bids on Friday are still around $121-122 across most regions. We saw limited sales of $124+ on this week’s FCE auction. USDA trimmed 2018 beef production by 75 million pounds to 26.864 billion. Production for 2019 was also revised lower by 175 million pounds to 27.61 billion.

Feb 19 Cattle are at $127.100, up $0.800,

Apr 19 Cattle are at $127.725, up $0.900,

Jun 19 Cattle are at $117.825, up $0.675,

Mar 19 Feeder Cattle are at $144.075, up $0.825

Apr 19 Feeder Cattle are at $145.800, up $0.925

May 19 Feeder Cattle are at $146.850, up $0.950

--provided by Brugler Marketing & Management



Lean Hog futures are mixed at midday, with most contracts 52.5 cents to $1.375 lower and Feb up 7.5 cents. The CME Lean Hog Index was down 27 cents from the previous day @ $56.89 on February 6. The USDA pork carcass cutout value was down 94 cents on Friday morning at an average weighted price of $64.17. The national base cash hog carcass value was down 23 cents in the PM report, with a weighted average of $49.52 USDA estimated FI hog slaughter for the week at 1.885 million head through Thursday. That is well above the previous week and 41,000 head larger than the same week last year. The 2018 US pork production number was increased by just 10 million lbs to 26.32 billion by the USDA this morning

Feb 19 Hogs are at $55.350, up $0.075,

Apr 19 Hogs are at $58.725, down $0.875

May 19 Hogs are at $66.825, down $0.525

--provided by Brugler Marketing & Management



Cotton futures are down 17 to 26 points in most contracts at midday. The delayed update to cotton production saw a yield drop of 22 pounds/ac to 838. An increase of 160,000 harvested acres saw production drop only ~200,000 bales to 18.390 million bales. The US carryout projection was down 100,000 bales to 4.3 million bales. On the world side, ending stocks were up 1.31 million bales to 75.5 million, as Chinese supply was revised higher on lower consumption. The Cotlook A Index was up 20 points on February 7 to 82.85 cents/lb. The USDA Adjusted World Price is 64.61 cents/lb through next Thursday, down 46 points from the previous week.

Mar 19 Cotton is at 72.64, down 17 points,

May 19 Cotton is at 73.69, down 23 points

Jul 19 Cotton is at 75.05, down 26 points

Oct 19 Cotton is at 74.890, up 28 points

--provided by Brugler Marketing & Management






Market Commentary provided by:

Brugler Marketing & Management LLC
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Phone: 402-697-3623
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E-mail: alanb@bruglermktg.com
Web: http://bruglermarketing.com

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